Executive Summary

This investment analysis report provides a comprehensive overview of Circio Holding ASA (CRNA), a biotechnology company specializing in circular RNA (circRNA) technology. The report examines the company's business model, financial performance, market position, and future prospects to provide investors with insights for informed decision-making.

Circio Holding ASA is positioned in the emerging field of circular RNA therapeutics, with a focus on developing next-generation nucleic acid medicines through its proprietary circVec platform. The company is currently in the early preclinical stage, with ongoing research in rare disease therapeutics, vaccine development, and cancer treatments.

Our analysis indicates a base case scenario (50% probability) with a 12-month price target of 0.88 NOK, representing a potential 30% upside from the current price. This forecast is based on the company's technological progress, strategic partnerships, and market position in the growing circular RNA therapeutics space.

Company Overview

Business Description

Circio Holding ASA is a biotechnology company specializing in circular RNA (circRNA) technology, focusing on developing next-generation nucleic acid medicines. The company has established a unique circRNA platform called circVec, which aims to become an industry gold standard for RNA therapeutics.

Core Business Areas

• Rare Disease Therapeutics: Developing circular RNA-based treatments for rare diseases
• Vaccine Development: Creating novel vaccine candidates using circRNA technology
• Cancer Treatments: Developing oncology therapeutics, including the TG01 pan-RAS cancer vaccine targeting KRAS driver mutations

Technological Advantages

• Superior durability compared to linear RNA
• Reduced immunogenicity
• Cost-effective manufacturing
• Potential to replace traditional mRNA in therapeutic applications

Development Status

Circio is currently in the early preclinical stage, having achieved in vivo proof-of-concept for its circVec platform. The company has presented pre-clinical proof-of-concept data at the ASGCT 2024 Meeting and has 10 clinical trials in progress.

Strategic Partnerships

Circio has established several strategic partnerships to advance its technology:

1. Certest Biotec, SL (November 2024)

Focus on formulation of circVec into lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) for tissue-specific delivery, with the objective to create and test circVec DNA-LNP formulations for therapeutic applications.

2. Entos Pharmaceuticals (April 2025)

Joint development and in vivo delivery testing of Circio's circular RNA technologies, combining Circio's durable circVec DNA technology with Entos' delivery expertise.

3. 4basebio (January 2025)

Partnership to advance circVec technology, with the objective to develop and test therapeutic candidates for genetic medicine, vaccines, and other applications.

Management Team

Circio is led by a team of experienced executives with backgrounds in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals:

• Dr. Erik Digman Wiklund - Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
• Dr. Lubor Gaal - CFO & Head of Business Development
• Mr. Ola Melin - Chief Operating Officer (COO)
• Dr. Thomas Birkballe Hansen - Chief Technology Officer (CTO)
• Dr. Victor Levitsky - Chief Tech/Sci/R&D Officer

Figure 1: Circio Holding ASA Employee Breakdown

Financial & Operational Metrics

Stock Information

• Current Stock Price: 0.674 NOK (Norwegian Kroner)
• Recent 24-hour Change: -5.95%
• 52-Week Price Range: 0.48 - 3.31 NOK
• Market Capitalization: Approximately 65.94 million NOK
• Shares Outstanding: 81.644 million
• Public Float: 81.36 million shares

Stock Volatility

Circio stock exhibits higher volatility than the overall market, with an average beta of approximately 1.5.

Financial Performance

The company has shown improvement in its financial performance, with a net income of NOK 57.52 million for the full year 2024, compared to a net loss of NOK 112.94 million in the previous year.

Figure 2: Circio Holding ASA Income vs Revenue

Financial Health

Debt Profile

• Total Debt: 17.36 Million
• Debt/Equity Ratio: Extremely high at -1,000%
• Long-Term Debt Repayment: Approximately -4.06 Million

Liquidity Metrics

• Current Ratio: Varies between sources (0.23 to 9.76)
• Quick Ratio: Varies between sources (0.23 to 7.3)

Cash Flow

• Operating Cash Flow: Negative (-40,532 to -89,196)
• Financing Cash Flow: Positive (36,635 to 41,929)
• End Cash Position: Approximately 18,255 to 22,250

Operational Metrics

Circio operates with a virtual business model, employing a total of 10 employees (7 full-time and 3 part-time). As a research-focused biotechnology company in the early stages of development, the company's operational metrics are primarily focused on R&D progress rather than commercial operations.

Market & Peer Context

Market Position

Circio Holding ASA operates in the biotechnology sector, specifically focusing on circular RNA (circRNA) therapeutics, a novel and emerging field within nucleic acid medicine. The company is positioned as an innovator in this space, working to establish its circVec platform as a potential industry standard for RNA therapeutics.

Industry Context

• Sector: Biotechnology
• Subsector: RNA Therapeutics/Gene Therapy
• Market Stage: Early/Emerging Technology
• Key Technology: Circular RNA (circRNA) platform

Peer Companies

Direct Competitors

• Dendreon - Focus on immunotherapy and cancer treatments
• Senti Bio - Focus on gene circuit technology for cell and gene therapies
• NexImmune - Focus on T cell immunotherapies for cancer and autoimmune diseases
• TScan Therapeutics - Focus on T cell receptor-engineered T cell therapies for cancer treatments
• Kite Pharma - Focus on cell therapy for cancer immunotherapy

Nordic Biotech Peers

• Alligator Bioscience AB - Focus on antibody-based therapeutics
• Opsy Holding AB - Focus on ophthalmology therapeutics
• Acousort AB - Focus on medical technology for cell separation
• NextCell Pharma AB - Focus on stem cell therapies

Figure 3: Comparison of Circio with Peer Companies

Comparative Analysis

Circio operates with a research-driven business model similar to its peers, focusing on innovative therapeutic platforms. As an early-stage biotechnology company, its value primarily lies in intellectual property and pipeline potential rather than current commercial products.

With a market capitalization of approximately 65.94 million NOK, Circio is relatively small compared to established biotech companies but comparable to other early-stage peers. Its focus on circular RNA technology represents a differentiated approach with potential advantages over linear RNA, including enhanced stability, reduced immunogenicity, improved manufacturing economics, and potential for sustained therapeutic effect.

Market Trends

The RNA therapeutics market has seen growing interest following the success of mRNA vaccines, with increasing investment in next-generation RNA technologies and expanding applications beyond vaccines into rare diseases and oncology. The strategic partnership landscape shows a trend toward collaboration between platform technology companies and larger pharmaceutical partners, with value creation through strategic partnerships and licensing deals.

The current investment climate for early-stage biotech companies remains volatile but not prohibitive for companies with promising technology, with an increasing focus on path to value creation and clinical validation.

Forecast & Valuation

Forecast Methodology

Our forecast analysis employs a multi-scenario approach to project Circio's potential performance over the next 6-12 months, integrating probability-weighted risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV), market share analysis, clinical trial success probability, and revenue multiple valuation.

Current Position Summary (June 2025)

• Stock Price: $0.07 USD (0.674 NOK)
• Market Capitalization: $6.34 million USD
• Shares Outstanding: 94.7 million
• Year-to-Date Performance: -93.75%
• Development Stage: Early Preclinical
• Key Technology: circVec platform for circular RNA therapeutics

Forecast Scenarios

Figure 4: Circio Holding ASA Stock Price Forecast

Figure 5: Circio Holding ASA Market Cap Forecast

Figure 6: Scenario Probabilities

Most Likely Scenario: Base Case

The Base Case scenario is identified as the most likely outcome (50% probability) based on industry benchmarks, Circio's current development stage, the funding environment, market position, and partnership potential. This scenario aligns with typical biotech development patterns, where progress occurs but with expected challenges and setbacks.

Valuation Models

Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV) Model

Our primary valuation approach employs a risk-adjusted NPV model with a 15% discount rate (standard for early-stage biotech), a 9-year time horizon (2025-2034), and clinical trial success probabilities ranging from 30% to 63% depending on the scenario.

Market Share Capture Model

The valuation also considers potential market share capture in the circular RNA therapeutics market, with a total market size of $214.22 million USD in 2025, projected to grow to $808.36 million USD by 2034 (15.9% CAGR).

Figure 7: Comparison of Valuation Methods

Figure 8: Radar Chart Comparing Scenarios

Expected Values (Probability-Weighted)

• Expected Stock Price: $0.09 USD (0.88 NOK)
• Expected Market Capitalization: $8.96 million USD
• Expected Valuation: $14.53 million USD
• Expected Share Price: $0.15 USD

Risk Factors

Development Risks

• Clinical Trial Outcomes: Biotech clinical trials have high failure rates (70% for Phase II)
• Development Timelines: Average clinical trial duration of 6-7 years presents significant uncertainty
• Scientific Challenges: Circular RNA technology is still emerging with potential unforeseen technical hurdles

Financial Risks

• Funding Environment: Biotech funding remains volatile and competitive
• Cash Runway: Early-stage companies require significant capital before reaching revenue
• Dilution Risk: Additional funding rounds may dilute existing shareholders

Market Risks

• Competitive Landscape: Multiple companies pursuing RNA-based therapeutics
• Technology Evolution: Rapid advances may render current approaches obsolete
• Regulatory Environment: Changes in regulatory requirements could impact development timelines

Conclusion

Circio Holding ASA presents a high-risk, high-potential investment opportunity typical of early-stage biotech companies. The Base Case scenario, with a 50% probability, suggests moderate share price appreciation over the next 12 months, while the Optimistic scenario offers significant upside potential if key milestones are achieved.

The company's focus on circular RNA technology positions it in a growing market with substantial long-term potential. However, investors should be aware of the significant risks associated with early-stage biotech development, including clinical trial uncertainties, funding challenges, and competitive pressures.

The probability-weighted expected valuation of $14.53 million represents a balanced view of Circio's potential outcomes, incorporating both upside opportunities and downside risks.

Disclaimer