Executive Summary

This report analyzes the projected impact of AI on Norway's labor market from 2025 to 2030, examining industry-specific automation risks, skills transitions, economic impacts, and comparative adoption rates across Nordic countries. The findings indicate both challenges and opportunities as AI transforms the workforce, with significant variations across sectors and skill levels.

Introduction

Norway stands at a critical juncture as artificial intelligence (AI) technologies rapidly evolve and integrate into business operations across all sectors. This report examines how these technologies will reshape Norway's labor market over the next five years (2025-2030), providing data-driven insights to help policymakers, businesses, and workers prepare for the coming transformation.

With an AI market in Norway projected to reach US$1.41 billion by 2025, understanding the specific impacts on jobs, skills, and economic growth is essential for developing effective strategies to harness AI's benefits while mitigating potential disruptions.

AI Adoption in Norway and Nordic Countries

Norway's AI adoption rate of 52% places it second among Nordic countries, behind Finland (61%) but ahead of Denmark (48%) and Sweden (45%). This positions Norway well to capitalize on AI-driven economic opportunities, though challenges remain in accelerating adoption across all sectors.

Figure 1: AI Adoption Rates Across Nordic Countries (2025 Projection)

Sector-Specific Adoption

AI adoption varies significantly across Norwegian industry sectors, with government agencies leading at 80% adoption, while retail logistics shows a moderate 33% adoption rate. The overall average across all sectors remains relatively low at 9%, indicating substantial room for growth.

Figure 2: AI Adoption Rates and Productivity Gains by Sector

Automation Risk by Industry

Approximately one-third of jobs in Norway are in professions with a high risk (over 70%) of being automated. The impact varies significantly by industry sector, with clerical work and call centers facing the highest risk of disruption.

Figure 3: Automation Risk by Industry Sector in Norway

Regional Variation

Automation risk shows geographic variation across Norway, with Oslo and Akershus facing a slightly lower risk (28%) compared to other regions (32%). This disparity reflects the concentration of knowledge-intensive industries in the capital region that are less susceptible to automation.

Workforce Impact

The integration of AI into Norway's economy will significantly transform the nature of work across multiple dimensions:

Key Workforce Statistics

• 28.2% of workers will be exposed to generative AI in their daily tasks
• 20.0% of tasks could potentially be completed in half the current time
• 33.0% of jobs face high automation risk
• 62% of companies report lacking necessary AI skills

Figure 4: AI Skills Gap Indicators in Norway

Skills Transition

As AI transforms job requirements, Norway faces a significant skills transition challenge. Technical, digital, and analytical skills will see the greatest increase in demand, while workers will need to adapt to new task requirements.

Figure 5: Skill Demand Shift in Norwegian Labor Market (2025-2030)

Projected Skills Shortages

Norway could face critical shortages in key technical areas, including:

• 10,000 software developers
• Over 4,000 IT security experts
• Significant shortages in AI specialists, data scientists, and cloud computing experts

Economic Impact

AI adoption is projected to deliver substantial economic benefits to Norway, with a potential GDP boost of 335 billion NOK. However, the distribution of these benefits will vary significantly across sectors.

Figure 6: Projected Economic Impact of AI by Sector (NOK Billion)

Impact Scenarios

The economic impact of AI will depend significantly on adoption rates, policy responses, and workforce adaptation. We present three scenarios:

Figure 7: AI Impact Scenarios on Norwegian Labor Market (2025-2030)

Policy Implications

Based on our analysis, several policy priorities emerge for Norway to maximize the benefits of AI while minimizing disruption:

Education and Reskilling

Norway must invest significantly in education and reskilling programs to address the projected skills gap. The government's €90 million investment in tech skills development is a positive step, but more comprehensive programs may be needed to meet the scale of the challenge.

Support for Vulnerable Workers

Workers in high-risk sectors will need targeted support for career transitions. This includes not only technical training but also assistance with job placement and potentially income support during transition periods.

AI Adoption Incentives

To realize the economic benefits of AI, Norway should consider incentives to accelerate adoption, particularly among small and medium enterprises that may lack resources for AI implementation.

Conclusion

Norway's labor market will undergo significant transformation due to AI between 2025-2030. While challenges exist in terms of job displacement and skills gaps, the potential economic benefits are substantial. With proactive policies focused on workforce development and AI adoption, Norway can position itself as a leader in the AI-driven economy.