1. Executive Summary

The 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election, scheduled for September 8, 2025, is poised to be a pivotal moment in Norwegian politics. Based on current polling data and political developments, this report forecasts the likely outcomes and implications of the upcoming election.

Key findings include:

• The Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) has seen a significant boost in support, currently polling at 30.9%, largely attributed to Jens Stoltenberg's return to Norwegian politics as Minister of Finance in February 2025.
• The Conservative Party (Høyre) is experiencing a notable decline, with recent polling showing support at just 13.9%, down from 20.4% in the 2021 election, as reported in the June 5, 2025 Finansavisen article "Krisemåling for Høyre: 13.9 prosent."
• The Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) has gained substantial support, now polling at 22%, nearly double their 2021 election result of 11.6%.
• The Centre Party's departure from the coalition government in January 2025 over EU energy policy disagreements has altered the political landscape.
• Current projections suggest a likely continuation of Labour Party leadership, potentially in a new coalition configuration.

The political landscape has been significantly reshaped by two major events in early 2025: the Centre Party's departure from the coalition government in January over disagreements on EU energy policies, and former Prime Minister and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's return to Norwegian politics as Minister of Finance in February. These developments, combined with shifting voter priorities around climate change, energy policy, immigration, and economic concerns, have created a dynamic and unpredictable electoral environment.

Based on our analysis of current polling data, historical voting patterns, and the evolving political context, we project that the Labour Party is well-positioned to maintain its leadership role after the September election, though likely in a reconfigured coalition. The Conservative Party faces significant challenges in rebuilding voter support, while the Progress Party has emerged as a more powerful political force than in previous elections.

Figure 1: Comparison of June 2025 polling data with 2021 election results

2. Party-by-Party Landscape

Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet)

Currently leading in the polls at 30.9%, the Labour Party has experienced a significant boost following Jens Stoltenberg's return to Norwegian politics as Minister of Finance in February 2025. Led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, the party is campaigning on strengthening the welfare state, workers' rights, and climate protection. Their improved position compared to the 2021 election (26.3%) suggests growing public confidence in their leadership, particularly after the addition of Stoltenberg's high-profile international experience to the government. With projected 52 seats in the Storting, the Labour Party is positioned as the dominant political force heading into the September election.

Conservative Party (Høyre)

The Conservative Party, led by Erna Solberg, is facing significant challenges with polling at just 13.9% as of June 2025, a substantial drop from their 20.4% result in 2021. This decline, highlighted in the June 5, 2025 Finansavisen article "Krisemåling for Høyre: 13.9 prosent," represents a potential crisis for the party that previously led the government until 2021. Their platform continues to focus on economic liberalism, individual freedoms, and conservative values, but these messages appear to be resonating less with voters in the current political climate. With projected 24 seats, the Conservative Party's influence has diminished considerably compared to their previous position.

Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet)

Under the leadership of Sylvi Listhaug, the Progress Party has seen a remarkable surge in support, now polling at 22% compared to 11.6% in 2021. Their right-wing populist platform emphasizing strict immigration policies, lower taxes, and free-market economics appears to be resonating with a growing segment of voters. The party's gains may be partially attributed to concerns about record-high immigration in recent years and economic anxieties. With projected 39 seats, the Progress Party has positioned itself as a major political force that could significantly influence government formation after the election.

Centre Party (Senterpartiet)

After leaving the coalition government in January 2025 over disagreements on EU energy policies, the Centre Party is polling at 9%, down from 13.5% in 2021. Led by Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, the party maintains its eurosceptic positions and focus on protecting rural communities. Their departure from the government was driven by opposition to adopting European Union energy directives, which they believed would weaken national control over electricity policy and potentially drive up costs. With projected 15 seats, the Centre Party remains an important player that could potentially serve as a kingmaker in coalition negotiations.

Other Significant Parties

The Socialist Left Party (8%, projected 13 seats) under the leadership of Kirsti Bergstø continues to advocate for environmental protection, social equality, and progressive taxation. The Red Party (5%, projected 8 seats) maintains its left-wing platform focusing on socialist policies and workers' rights. The Liberal Party (4%, projected 7 seats) advocates for liberal values and environmental protection. The Green Party (3%, projected 5 seats) focuses on environmental issues, while the Christian Democratic Party (3.2%, projected 6 seats) continues to advocate for family values and Christian ethics.

Figure 2: Current party standings based on June 2025 polling data

Figure 3: Polling trends showing changes between March and June 2025

3. Voter Priorities

Climate Change and Environmental Policy

Environmental concerns have emerged as a key issue for Norwegian voters, particularly among Labour Party supporters. There is growing tension between environmental protection goals and Norway's oil-based economy, with increasing calls for transitioning from oil and gas to renewable energy sources. Climate protection is now a notable concern across the political spectrum, though parties differ significantly in their approaches to balancing environmental goals with economic considerations. The Labour Party has positioned itself as committed to reducing climate emissions while managing a responsible transition away from petroleum dependence.

Energy Policy

Energy policy has become a central political debate, highlighted by the Centre Party's departure from the government coalition over EU energy directives in January 2025. Norway is experiencing a gradual shift from "black gold" (oil) to a "blue economy," with growing emphasis on moving away from petroleum extraction. Key concerns in the energy debate include national control over electricity policy, potential impacts on consumer electricity costs, questions about Norway's energy independence, and the pace and nature of integration with European energy markets. This issue has become particularly divisive, with the eurosceptic Centre Party strongly opposing adoption of EU energy directives that they believe would compromise Norway's sovereignty in energy matters.

Immigration and Integration

With one-fifth of Norway's residents now being immigrants or children of immigrants, and record-high immigration in recent years (particularly influenced by Ukrainian refugees), migration has become a complex and important political issue. Municipalities have expressed concerns about capacity overload due to high immigration rates, while integration challenges persist across education and employment sectors. The Progress Party has gained significant support with its strict immigration stance, while other parties propose varying approaches to managing migration flows and improving integration outcomes.

Economic Concerns

Cost of living issues remain important to voters, with the National Budget 2025 including measures such as reducing VAT on water and sewerage charges. Persistent inequalities across education and immigrant status continue to influence economic policy debates. The political instability resulting from the Centre Party leaving the coalition may be partially driven by economic concerns, particularly regarding the potential impact of EU energy policies on electricity costs for consumers. Parties across the political spectrum are addressing economic anxieties in their platforms, though with significantly different proposed solutions.

Additional Priorities

Other significant voter concerns include healthcare system quality and accessibility, education policy and equal opportunities, rural development and decentralization (particularly important for Centre Party voters), Norway's relationship with the European Union beyond energy policy, and sustainable development goals and their implementation.

4. Coalition Scenarios

Norway's multi-party system typically requires coalition governments. Based on current polling and historical patterns, several coalition scenarios emerge for the 2025 election:

Scenario 1: Centre-Left Coalition

A Labour-led coalition potentially including the Socialist Left Party and other left-leaning parties. With Labour's strong polling at 30.9% and combined projected seats with the Socialist Left Party and Green Party reaching 70 (out of 169 total seats), this coalition would need additional support to secure a majority. However, it represents the most viable path to government given current polling numbers. This coalition would likely focus on climate protection, strengthening the welfare state, and progressive taxation policies.

Scenario 2: Centre-Right Coalition

A potential coalition between the Conservative Party, Christian Democratic Party, and possibly the Liberal Party. However, with the Conservative Party's declining support (13.9%) and a combined projected seat count of only 37 seats (including the Liberal Party), this coalition would be far from a majority. The significant drop in Conservative support makes this scenario particularly challenging and would require additional partners to be viable.

Scenario 3: Right-Wing Coalition

The Progress Party's surge to 22% could position them as a significant player in a right-wing coalition, potentially partnering with the Conservative Party and other center-right parties. With a combined 69 seats between the Progress Party, Conservative Party, Christian Democratic Party, and Liberal Party, this coalition would still fall short of a majority but could potentially seek support from the Centre Party to reach the 85-seat threshold. This would represent a substantial shift from the current government.

Scenario 4: Minority Government

Given the fragmented political landscape, a minority government led by the Labour Party with case-by-case support from other parties remains a possibility, similar to the current situation following the Centre Party's departure from the coalition. The Labour Party could govern with informal support from the Socialist Left Party and potentially the Red Party on specific issues, while negotiating with centrist parties on others.

Potential Kingmaker Role

The Centre Party, with its projected 15 seats, could play a crucial kingmaker role in government formation. Despite leaving the Labour-led coalition in January 2025, they could potentially rejoin after extracting concessions on EU energy policies, or alternatively support a center-right formation under certain conditions. Their eurosceptic position and focus on rural interests will likely be key factors in any coalition negotiations.

Figure 4: Potential coalition scenarios based on projected seat distribution

5. Most Likely Outcome

Based on current polling data, political developments, and historical patterns, the most likely outcome of the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election is a Labour-led government, potentially in a new coalition configuration.

Key Factors Supporting This Forecast:

• Labour Party's Strong Position: At 30.9% in recent polling, the Labour Party holds a commanding lead over other parties, bolstered by Jens Stoltenberg's return to Norwegian politics. This represents an increase from their 2021 election result of 26.3% and translates to a projected 52 seats in the 169-seat Storting.
• Conservative Decline: The significant drop in Conservative Party support to 13.9% (from 20.4% in 2021) weakens the main opposition's ability to form a viable alternative government. This decline, highlighted in the June 5, 2025 Finansavisen article, represents a crisis for the party that previously led the government until 2021.
• Progress Party's Rise: While the Progress Party has seen substantial gains (22% compared to 11.6% in 2021), their right-wing positioning may limit coalition possibilities. Their projected 39 seats make them a major force but not one that can easily form a government without significant compromises from potential partners.
• Centre Party's Strategic Position: Despite leaving the coalition, the Centre Party could potentially rejoin a Labour-led government after extracting concessions on EU energy policies. Their 9% support (down from 13.5% in 2021) still translates to a meaningful 15 seats that could be decisive in government formation.

Projected Government Composition:

The most likely scenario is a Labour-led coalition government that could include the Socialist Left Party (projected 13 seats) and potentially other smaller left-leaning parties. This coalition would focus on climate protection, strengthening the welfare state, and navigating Norway's complex relationship with European energy policies. The Labour Party may also attempt to bring the Centre Party back into the coalition after addressing their concerns about EU energy directives.

Alternatively, the Labour Party could form a minority government with informal support from left-leaning parties on a case-by-case basis, similar to the current arrangement following the Centre Party's departure from the coalition in January 2025.

Key Challenges for the Next Government:

• Balancing environmental goals with Norway's oil-dependent economy
• Addressing immigration and integration challenges
• Managing Norway's relationship with the European Union, particularly regarding energy policies
• Responding to cost of living concerns
• Maintaining political stability in a fragmented parliament

Electoral Implications:

The 2025 election appears likely to reinforce the Labour Party's position as Norway's dominant political force while continuing the trend toward a more fragmented political landscape. The significant decline of the Conservative Party and rise of the Progress Party suggest a realignment of right-wing politics in Norway, while the continued importance of smaller parties highlights the coalition-dependent nature of Norwegian governance.

Figure 5: Projected seat distribution in the Storting following the 2025 election

6. Static Graphs

Party Standings Bar Chart

The party standings visualization compares current polling data (June 2025) with the 2021 election results, highlighting the significant changes in party support. Most notable are the Conservative Party's decline from 20.4% to 13.9% and the Progress Party's surge from 11.6% to 22%. The Labour Party has also seen a meaningful increase from 26.3% to 30.9%, while the Centre Party has declined from 13.5% to 9%. These shifts represent a substantial realignment of Norwegian politics since the last election.

Regional Support Distribution

The distribution of party support varies significantly across Norway's regions, with some parties drawing strength primarily from urban centers while others maintain strong rural bases. National parties (Labour Party and Progress Party) have the broadest appeal across Norway's diverse regions. Urban-based parties (Conservative Party, Socialist Left Party, Red Party, Liberal Party, Green Party) collectively form a significant bloc, reflecting the growing importance of urban voters in Norwegian politics. Rural-focused parties (Centre Party, Christian Democratic Party) have more limited but concentrated support bases, particularly in areas concerned about centralization and EU influence.

Figure 6: Distribution of parties by their primary regional support base

Polling Data Summary